To find out how companies are coping with rising trade tensions and currency volatility, we asked our writers across key regions—Southeast Asia, Japan, India, and the United States—to speak with manufacturers and exporters on the ground.

Salamander has been closely monitoring the ripple effects of US trade policy across Southeast Asia. Padfield argues that the tariffs promulgated by the Trump administration have generated enormous hesitation in the business community. “First the pause button goes on; capital investment is halted, hiring is halted,” he adds.

In Southeast Asia’s technology manufacturing sectors, steel is a critical component. “Tech manufacturers often have steel in products,” Padfield says. “For Singapore, we have a 10% tariff, so life goes on—except what if we need steel?”

If a company’s product contains 40% steel, the ambiguity is paralyzing, he adds. “[The manufacturer] has no idea at this point how to calculate and adjust, so he cannot safely procure or price his product.” Padfield also warns of a broader, looming concern: “And so far, tariffs have been on physical products. What about services and capital flows? Will services be included and if so when … this is a grim worry for Singapore, Hong Kong, and Dubai.”

Dugan sees a clear shift underway. “Business leaders are actively seeking non-US solutions for customers and suppliers for their future growth. The US may be the largest economy in the world but now it is fast becoming one of the most unreliable.”

Simple risk mitigation for a company is now “how do I reduce my exposure to US policy making?” Encouraged by talk of new free trade zones elsewhere in the world, companies are actively exploring new manufacturing bases such as the Middle East, where there is an abundance of support from the governments in the form of ultra-low taxes, land, workers, and top-class logistics.

As the US considers reimposing steep tariffs on Asian imports, business leaders in Vietnam are watching closely. From M&A advisors to food exporters, the proposed trade shifts under the Trump administration could reshape everything from pricing strategies to regional market priorities. Nguyen Dung Yoong, CEO of advisory firm Ideainvest; Ignas Petrusis, founder of Saigon Fruits; and other company executives, share how they’re preparing their businesses—and their partners—for a more protectionist US trade environment.

Global Finance: How is your company reacting to Trump’s tariff plans?

Nguyen Dung Yoon: Ideainvestor, while not a direct exporter, works closely with a network of SMEs across Vietnam and Southeast Asia—many of whom are active in electronics, agri-processing, light manufacturing, and textile garment. The Trump-era tariffs have added volatility and margin pressure to these sectors, and further escalation would intensify the challenge.

GF: Are you finding solutions to the tariff challenges?

Yoon: To support our partners, we’re piloting an AI-based platform that assesses SME resilience across financial, operational, and customer dimensions—enabling targeted interventions such as supplier diversification or contract restructuring. This gives us a real-time view of tariff exposure across our ecosystem.

GF: Will expanding to other markets be essential if the proposed tariffs come in full force?

Yoon: If reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam are imposed, we expect upward pressure on wholesale and consumer pricing. That said, we see strong opportunities in APAC—particularly in Japan, South Korea, and India—and are advising our partners to deepen these opportunities.

GF: Have the Trump tariffs had a material impact on Saigon Fruits’ business partners?

Petrusis: At first, contracts with importers in America came on short hold as soon as the tariffs were announced. Later, once Vietnam and America agreed on a “90-day break,” demand and inquiries triple-folded. So far, we’re optimistic about the negotiations. It would be difficult to shift production elsewhere because we’d need to move our food technologists, equipment, and allocate new managers. That would cost us much more in terms of cost, time, and effort. It’s easier to simply “split the cost” between the importer in the US and our company, Saigon Fruits.

GF: What happens to wholesale/retail prices if the proposed 46% reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam come into effect?

Petrusis: Supposedly, export prices should—in my humble opinion—drop a little bit to relieve the burden on the customers.

GF: How significant will APAC be as a buyer of Saigon Fruits’ affiliates’ products going forward?

Petrusis: Some countries like Thailand and Cambodia have similar climate zones and product variety. As for highly advanced economies like Japan, China, or Korea—we’ve seen steady and growing export volumes to those destinations. Nevertheless, we’re also seeing growing demand in countries like Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and others in the Middle East. They could be a promising new market for our products.

GF: What is the mood among food exporters in Vietnam right now? Is there any optimism?

Petrusis: Vietnam wasn’t the only country affected by the tariffs. For instance, if Cambodia or China were to receive higher tariffs after the final negotiations, it would boost Vietnam’s competitiveness in terms of cost base for the importer. At least among our colleagues, partners, and suppliers, the mood is optimistic—many believe exports will keep rising. Furthermore, Vietnam has at least 16 active Free Trade Agreements, including the ones with Europe, South American, and Middle East countries. It is truly a showcase of good negotiation skills and win-win thinking implementation from the Vietnamese side.

As Vietnam prepares for the potential return of steep US tariffs under the second Trump administration, industrial real estate leaders like DEEP C are keeping a close eye on the ripple effects. The company, which operates five eco-industrial parks across Haiphong City and Quang Ninh Province, is one of Vietnam’s largest zone developers.

GF: Have the Trump tariffs had a material impact on DEEP C’s business?

Bruno Jaspaert: So far, there has been no impact as zero projects have been delayed or canceled so far. Initially, there was concern that some investors might reconsider their plans. However, an assessment of all companies slated to acquire land in DEEP C industrial zones across Hai Phong and Quang Ninh this year revealed that none of these projects will be postponed or aborted. This indicates that companies which have committed to investing are currently sticking to their plans, which is a positive sign.

GF: Have DEEP C’s customers formulated a strategy to mitigate tariff impact?

Jaspaert: We generally see two distinct groups. One group says it’s too difficult to predict future events and chooses to continue with their plans, confident that their current strategy is the best course of action for now. The other group expresses uncertainty due to market volatility and unknown future measures the US will take, opting to wait before committing. This second group currently represents the minority; the majority of companies are proceeding with their strategies.

GF: Is there likely to be an impact on DEEP C’s customers’ wholesale/retail prices if the proposed reciprocal tariffs on Cambodia come into effect?

Jaspaert: Most of DEEP C’s customers are focused on manufacturing of goods that do not focus on the US as the main market. The segments that are hit worst are typical low-margin markets, such as furniture, sport goods, garments, and textiles—of which we have none with Washington, D.C.

GF: How significant will markets outside the US—i.e., APAC, Europe or Canada—be as a buyer of your customers’ products in the domestic industry going forward?

Jaspaert: The US stands for 300 million consumers. The TAM (total addressable market) for the consumer in Asia is worth $4 billion. If tariffs make the US a prohibitive market, companies will adapt and lean toward other markets or aim for more intra-Asian trade.

GF: What is the general mood among exporters in Vietnam right now?

Jaspaert: Except for the heaviest hit markets, most distributors are sticking to a “wait-and-see” approach. Companies cannot change their strategies overnight and definitely not every 90 days. Rather than diving in, they are awaiting the final call before making strategic adjustments. Those companies that are hit badly are currently running at full speed to export the most to benefit from the current 10%.

Indian companies are also weighing the ripple effects on global supply chains, trade relationships, and cost structures. From tech consulting to textiles and industrial manufacturing, Global Finance spoke to two India-based executives on how policy shifts may reshape sourcing decisions and create new market opportunities.

“While services are currently not subject to tariffs, we provide technology and consulting services to a broad range of US-based industries such as energy, warehousing, logistics, etc. The primary impact of such policy changes is likely to be on manufacturing and physical goods. Since the policy details are yet to be finalized, we believe the changes will not have a major effect on the IT industry at this stage.”

“The US has paused [some] tariffs, leaving some uncertainty for buyers about where to source their products, but even if these tariffs take effect, India will still be the most affordable option for buyers.” 

Sabu Jacob, Kitex Group’s Chairman and Managing Director

Jacob explained that India’s trade relationship with the US is more balanced compared to countries like Cambodia, Vietnam, China, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. “India doesn’t just export to the US—it also imports heavily from them. This makes India a valuable trade partner, and the US is looking for more such balanced relationships.”  The tariff situation could also push businesses to explore new markets. For instance, the recent India-UK free trade agreement allows 99% of Indian goods to enter the UK duty-free, covering almost all trade between the two nations. “A similar free trade agreement with the EU could open even bigger opportunities for India’s economy.”

Semaya says Japanese companies are taking a “wait-and-see” approach as tariff negotiations between the US and Japan remain unresolved.

“Regarding the mutual tariffs imposed by the United States, many Japanese companies are currently assessing the situation. Following the US-UK agreement, both the US and Chinese governments have agreed to reduce the additional tariffs they imposed on each other by 115%. As a result, the US will lower its tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce theirs from 125% to 10%. Since negotiations between the US and Japan are ongoing, and the outcome is still uncertain, Japanese companies are choosing not to finalize any strategies at this moment and are responding according to the present state of negotiations.

“The financial markets have reacted significantly, in terms of stocks, bonds, and currencies, since the mutual tariffs were announced. It is reported that some institutional investors, including hedge funds, have incurred losses. On the other hand, individual investors engaged in practices such as dollar-cost averaging seem to have navigated the situation successfully. Focusing on long-term investments appears to be crucial during these times.”

“For Critical Metals, and the critical minerals space more broadly—tariffs are no stranger to us. We’ve been in our own mini trade war with China for some time now, which really ramped up when they banned their own exports of key rare earths, including gallium, last year. Critical Metals views the push to build a domestic supply chain for critical materials in the US and the West as a positive tailwind for our business. It aligns with our longstanding vision to develop key assets that can help the West reduce its reliance on foreign countries. Our Tanbreez asset in Greenland, a 4.7 billion ton resource, is one of the world’s largest rare earth deposits, and it’s expected to be key in reducing the West’s reliance on China for rare earths.

“It’s also worth noting that the US’s domestic rare earth and critical minerals industry is still in its infancy—the US excluded rare earth elements from the tariff program because the country must rely so heavily on other sources right now. Tariffs may draw more attention to US producers, but what we feel is really going to move the needle is funding and strategic partnerships with US-focused companies to operationalize rare earth mines and refining capacity in the US as quickly as possible. Seeking relief for rare earth export restrictions isn’t enough, we believe the US government needs to back Western developers and help establish refining capacity in particular.

“As we’ve consistently maintained since our founding, securing critical minerals is a non-partisan national security imperative. Our assets provide exactly what policymakers across the political spectrum are seeking—reliable, high-quality resources in politically stable jurisdictions.”

“At Tactical Resources, we see measures to promote the building of domestic supply chains for the United States as a tailwind. We are focused on American assets for American rare earth production and American rare earth supply to support the production of semiconductors, electric vehicles, advanced robotics, and most importantly, national defense. Tariffs are just one tactic, as its broader and bigger than that. While there is economic uncertainty, we are benefiting from a broader geopolitical interest in securing critical mineral supplies in the US. This demand is stemming from both the federal government and the private sector, and we believe that’s only going to increase.

“The bottom line is that China has a substantial lead in the rare earths sector, and the US is racing to catch up. China currently controls roughly 90% of global rare earth production, despite accounting for only about one-third of global deposits. Tactical Resources is planning to change that with our Peak Project, which is one of the only REE hard rock direct-leach-extractable projects in the world, and is located southeast of El Paso, Texas. But tariffs won’t be enough for the US to build an integrated domestic supply chain of rare earths. The industry needs capital, price stability, streamlined permitting processes (efforts are underway for this aspect), and to establish refining capacity as quickly as possible.”

“The Trump administration’s policies are helping our business. For years we couldn’t compete with foreign pricing, but having tariffs in place at least have US companies taking another look at US manufacturing. They are sometimes still choosing to stay with their foreign manufacturers, but for years, we couldn’t even get a conversation started as everyone just assumed US manufacturing would be too expensive. It doesn’t have to be, and we can be fairly competitive in some areas.

“The tariffs aren’t affecting our supply chains too badly. It has increased some costs of our raw materials like the higher-end electronic chips that are only manufactured overseas. That said, it’s fairly small, and we do keep decent in stock inventory for our major customers. Our profit margins are very low, so we inevitably have to pass along any additional tariff charges to the customers. We are doing our best to identify US or lower tariff region alternatives where the cost makes sense. It’s just about being flexible, which we all learned to do during the global parts shortage of 2021.”

“The short story is that some of our costs are going up, immediately, but the longer, more detailed story is that those increased costs are causing us to evaluate our sourcing, importing, and roasting strategies. We need to be smarter to remain competitive in the current environment while still delivering great specialty coffee.

“Other than a very small amount of coffee produced primarily in Hawaii, the United States has essentially no domestic coffee industry. To meet the demand for total US coffee consumption, it’s almost entirely imported. That means there isn’t much of a domestic market to protect using a tariff strategy as a disincentive to foreign imports—and we can’t simply stop importing coffee, no matter what tariffs might be put in place.

“Coffee was already becoming more expensive to source prior to the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, with a pretty substantial run-up in prices occurring in the fall of 2024, which accelerated further this spring. A new baseline 10% tariff under the Trump Administration on all imports impacts us on every imported coffee, and in addition to the new 10% baseline, even higher tariffs (in some cases, much higher) were announced for some coffee producing countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. While some of these have since been paused or delayed.

“Uncertainty around the exact details on any specific day are creating some challenges to plan and predict our future costs.”

Heather Perry, CEO of Klatch Coffee

“Our direct-trade model has insulated us somewhat from supply disruptions. Whenever possible, we source directly from coffee producers, leveraging relationships that go back decades in some cases. This results in fewer stops along the supply chain, helping us to control costs. Because we import, store, and roast our own coffee, we can elect to draw down existing stock instead of replacing it at current (higher) market prices, but eventually, we have to replenish our inventory, and that might happen during a time when new tariffs are applied.

“After a very long period of absorbing increases in our costs to import coffee, we raised prices on some coffees on June 1st of this year—about 10 cents per cup of brewed coffee on average—but we’re still selling the same amount of coffee, and at this time, can’t attribute a decline in foot traffic or sales to price increases.”

Different financing goals, geopolitical risks, and interest rate changes as well as currency fluctuations often create hurdles that may endanger the completion of a deal. However, with the right banking partner, these challenges can be transformed into opportunities. Experts from Raiffeisen Bank International discuss how these needs can be met, using a real-world scenario. Kindly take note of the disclaimer at the end of this advertisement.

Imagine you’re an Austrian exporter about to close a significant deal with a Serbian client, supplying a food-processing machine valued at EUR 10 million. Your goal is straightforward: secure payment in EUR as per the delivery schedule. Meanwhile, your Serbian partner would like to have an attractive long-term financing. How do these requirements and goals come together?

In today’s world, risks are global. “Geopolitical developments can have far-reaching effects in all regions, including Central and Eastern Europe,” says Evgeniya Sharkova from RBI Trade Finance. “In addition to the counterparty and political risks, the parties to the commercial contract may face FX and interest rates risks,” adds Martina Zimmerl, RBI Capital Markets. Ultimately, exporters are looking for new ways to create additional competitive advantages. “By arranging long-term financing solutions for their clients, exporters can make a deal more attractive to potential importers,” Sanin Merdžan, RBI Export Finance, explains.

As an exporter, your primary concern is ensuring payment security. “From RBI’s various trade finance solutions, the export letter of credit (LC) is the first choice in our scenario,” says Sharkova. “The LC could be issued either by our own subsidiary bank in Serbia, or by one of the many partner banks we have in the country.”

“If you want to accelerate payment under the LC, the UPAS LC (usance payable at sight export letter of credit) could be a good way to bridge the period until the ECA-covered long-term financing is put together,” Sharkova says. With an export UPAS LC, the bank of the importer issues an LC with deferred payment and a maximum total tenor of up to 360 days. For higher security, RBI confirms the LC issued by the local bank. Thus, the exporter will mitigate the counterparty risk by taking the first-class payment risk of RBI instead of the risk of a local bank or local importer.

One of the main features of the export UPAS LC is that the exporter will receive its payment under the LC at sight, which means upon presentation of the compliant shipping documents. This special form of discounting under an LC offers the exporter the possibility to improve its cash flow and optimise its balance sheet. 

At the same time, the export UPAS LC offers the importer an extended reimbursement obligation towards the issuing bank. By offering longer payment terms, the exporter strengthens its negotiating position with the client. The interest for the deferred payment period under this structure is to be borne by the importer.

With the LC and the following ECA-covered financing, the exporter is able to mitigate both counterparty and political risk. Furthermore, payment is received under the contract in EUR as per agreed schedule. Its Serbian partner on the other hand obtains a financing in EUR at attractive cost. This multi-product solution provides an ideal bridge between an LC and ECA-covered financing.

RBI provides attractive long-term ECA-covered financing solutions such as the Buyer’s Credit and RBI Shopping Line for the purpose of financing of Austrian/European imports of investment goods starting from EUR 2 million onwards that are guaranteed by Austrian export credit agency “OeKB” or any other Western European export credit agency (ECA).

“For our particular scenario, once the client has successfully passed RBI’s internal risk and credit reviews we would provide a EUR 10 million OeKB-guaranteed Buyer’s Credit,” says Merdžan. “This solution gives the exporter liquidity and a competitive edge, while the importer benefits from attractive long-term financing terms due to ECA’s commercial and political risk cover provided to the lender as well as fast execution, which helps them manage their cash flow more effectively.”

Furthermore, exporters benefit from the option to have production risk covered, adding an extra layer of security to their operations. “When offering financing solutions on top of the supply deal, exporters can enhance their competitiveness in the global market,” Merdžan states.

On the other hand, this arrangement allows importers to preserve their own bank lines for other business needs, providing them with greater financial flexibility and debt capacity. Additionally, the ECA guarantee fee can be financed, further easing the financial burden on the importer.

“Although in our scenario the currency risk might be of minor relevance at first glance since the RSD is a managed FX rate, a risk remains for the importer since it has concluded a long-term financing contract in EUR and is obtaining revenues in RSD,” notes Zimmerl. “The focus for the importer is to build upon stable exchange rates and interest rate strategies to effectively manage risks and optimise financial operations in Serbia, ensuring resilience in a challenging economic landscape,” she explains. “This is why it is so important to have a partner who understands both the global situation and also the on-the-ground macro, market, and policy environment.”

Local experts at RBI’s subsidiary bank Raiffeisen Bank Serbia are monitoring the impact of US tariff policies closely, alongside domestic risk factors. Aleksandra Maksimovic, Head of Treasury and Investment Banking at Raiffeisen Bank Serbia, notes, “Despite all challenges, the economic deceleration is still not confirmed in hard data, although it is expected to be seen in the coming quarters given the euro-zone economy slowdown.”

“The question of whether to hedge EURRSD FX risk ultimately depends on the respective client’s view on the market as well as its internal hedging policies,” explains Zimmerl. Given the still developing nature of the FX forward market in Serbia, hedging is generally for shorter tenors. “For example, the importer could buy three-month and six-month forwards and roll-over additional forwards at maturity to hedge future loan repayments,” she says. On the other hand, as the FX rate is managed and IR differentials are positive, the importer may choose not to hedge the FX risk for the time being and to monitor the situation with the aid of a strong local partner, such as Raiffeisen Bank Serbia. 

Interest rate swaps (IRS) are vital tools for managing interest rate exposure, allowing parties to exchange fixed and floating rate payments. They stabilise cash flows by converting variable-rate debt to fixed-rate debt or vice versa, thereby potentially lowering borrowing costs. In the case of the Serbian importer, who is taking a long-term financing in EUR, RBI would advise hedging the interest rate risk via an IRS. “Our subsidiary bank in Serbia offers interest rate hedging starting from notional amounts of EUR 500k, with tenors from one to ten years, under a local master agreement,” explains Zimmerl. In addition to the mentioned offerings of Raiffeisen Bank Serbia, it is worth noting that RBI is able to offer comprehensive hedging solutions, advisory, and structuring expertise also in other CEE markets, thereby supporting clients’ business in the region. A close and honest communication with the client is vital, as IRS and other derivatives are complex financial instruments which offer risks and chances. It is important that the client has a clear understanding of the functioning, the risk, and the chances of these financial instruments.

RBI’s integrated approach combining different products and solutions, such as expertise in trade finance, export finance, and capital markets offers comprehensive support tailored to our clients’ needs. Its CEE competence through subsidiary banks distinguishes RBI, delivering customised solutions. “We adapt to market changes, consistently enhancing our services to provide resilient financial solutions amid shifting geopolitical and economic landscapes,” says Zimmerl. With robust risk mitigation strategies, RBI helps clients navigate volatile markets confidently, ensuring competitiveness and security.

Navigate financial market risks confidently—download RBI’s expert report filled with strategies, insights, and best practices! Get Your Guide

Advertisement: This advertisement is provided purely as non-binding information. The information contained therein do neither constitute an offer nor a recommendation nor a financial analysis. They are no substitute for individual investment advice on purchasing and selling financial instruments or for taking any investment decision. Kindly be aware that financial investments as those in focus of this advertisement involve financial risks, including the possible total loss of the invested capital. The information provided herein also do not constitute fiscal or legal advice. The fiscal and legal treatment of investments is dependent on your personal situation. You are strongly advices to seek professional financial, fiscal and legal advice prior to taking any investment decision. Be aware that any hedging involves derivatives, which are complex financial instruments and are not easy to understand. Investing in derivatives incurs the risk of a total loss of the invested capital and in certain circumstances may require the obligation to provide additional capital. This information is therefore only addressed to professional clients and eligible counterparties under MiFID II. Please also take note that information on past performance do not constitute a reliable indicator on the actual future performance.