Emerging & Frontier Markets Archives | Global Finance Magazine https://gfmag.com/emerging-frontier-markets/ Global news and insight for corporate financial professionals Fri, 13 Jun 2025 20:14:01 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://gfmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/favicon-138x138.png Emerging & Frontier Markets Archives | Global Finance Magazine https://gfmag.com/emerging-frontier-markets/ 32 32 Pix Becomes Brazil’s Top Transaction Method https://gfmag.com/transaction-banking/pix-becomes-brazils-top-transaction-method/ Wed, 02 Jul 2025 08:10:00 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=71101 The massive growth in digital payments in Brazil has reached yet another milestone.

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As of the end of 2024, Pix, the country’s government-backed system that enables citizens to exchange funds seamlessly via their mobile phones, has become the country’s preferred method of transactions, surpassing cash, credit cards, and traditional interbank electronic transactions.

According to numbers from the Banco Central do Brazil, 76.4% of the country’s 211 million population now use Pix, followed by debit cards at 69.1% and cash at 68.9%.

“Pix has transformed the Brazilian economy; it expanded financial inclusion, formalized part of the informal economy, and gave the government greater visibility into transactions,” explains Reginaldo Nogueira, national director at the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec).

“It’s not just a payment innovation; it’s a structural reconfiguration of how money circulates and how the state collects revenue,” he adds. According to the Brazilian Banking Federation, there were 68.7 billion Pix transactions in 2024 alone, a massive 52% increase from the prior year, reaching roughly $5 trillion in value.

The massive uptick was due to increasing person-to-business transactions via the system, which recorded a 90% year-on-year jump in 2024, according to a study by Matera Research.

Pix recorded its largest one-day volume on December 20, 2024, when the system handled 252.1 million transactions.

“The central bank’s digitalization agenda, led by Pix, is in full swing and transforming how Brazilians make payments,” said Rodrigo Teixeira, director of administration at the central bank. The central bank aims to expand PIixs functionalities into the credit side, incorporating features such as installment payments and enabling future Pix transactions to be accepted as collateral in lending transactions.

Pix is also growing on the stablecoin side, with the central bank recording a massive increase in Tether (a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar) transactions over Pix this year. Courtnay Guimarães, head of Digital Assets at Bradesco Bank, explains, “With a crypto account and Pix, anyone can convert funds in real time, gaining access to up to 180,000 assets globally.”

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Syria: If Sanctions Are Lifted, Will Syria ‘Shine?’ https://gfmag.com/economics-policy-regulation/syria-if-sanctions-are-lifted-will-syria-shine/ Wed, 18 Jun 2025 12:23:33 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70919 Last month, the US and the EU announced the relaxation of sanctions on Syria.

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“It’s their time to shine. We’re taking them all off,” said US President Donald Trump in a speech that sparked an outburst of joy in Damascus.

After 14 years of war, 90% of the Syrian population live beneath the poverty line. Since the Assad regime fell in December, removing the sanctions to kickstart the economy has been a top priority of transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the victorious rebellion; but Syria has been under severe US restrictions since 1979 and lifting them won’t be simple.

The principal strictures are the 2019 Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act and the 2003 Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act (SALSA). Only Congress can fully repeal them, and that will take months, at best. The executive branch can issue temporary waivers, as the Treasury Department did in May, but the real impact on Syrian corporates and finan- cial institutions remains limited.

“Only the full cancellation of US Caesar and SALSA laws, and not just their temporary suspension, could open the door for long-term investment,” argues Samir Aita, president of the Circle of Arab Economists, a Paris-based think tank.

For Syrian banks, which remain largely cut off from global financial networks, rejoining the Swift system for transfer and reporting correspondent banking relationships is first on the agenda. “The Syrian market is very promising; it is almost virgin,” says Ali Awdeh, head of research at the Union of Arab Banks, “but honestly, no banks from the Arab region or elsewhere will dare to enter this market until there is a full lifting of US sanctions.” In Europe, the process is less complicated. Last month, the European Council lifted sanctions on several Syrian companies operating in key sectors like oil production, agriculture, finance, construction, telecoms, and media. Depending on how the situation in Syria develops, other companies could be delisted in the coming months. Restrictions will remain, however, for industries that pose security concerns, such as weapon sales.

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Malaysia: Leveraging A Strategic Location https://gfmag.com/features/malaysia-leveraging-a-strategic-location/ Mon, 16 Jun 2025 09:11:00 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70940 Malaysia - an expanding and diversifying economy is attracting foreign investors to the peninsular nation. Proximity to pricey Singapore helps.

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Vital Statistics
Location: Southeast Asia
Neighbors: Singapore, Thailand, Myanmar
Capital City: Kuala Lumpur
Population (2022): 35.9 million
Official Language: Malay
GDP per capita (2025): $13,140 (est.)
GDP growth (2025): 5% (est.)
Inflation (2025): 2%-3.5% (est.)
Currency: Ringgit
Investment promotion agency: InvestKL, under the Ministry of International Trade and Industry; also the Malaysian Investment Development Authority for manufacturing and servicing sectors
Investment incentives: Income tax reductions, special economic development zones, tax incentives and discounts for individuals and entities invested in carbon capture
Corruption Perceptions Index rank (2021): 62/180
Political risks: Interethnic conflict and resentment; conflict over Islamic versus secular law and over the rule of law over senior politicians
Security risks: Marine piracy, particularly in the Malacca Strait and between Sabah and the Philippines; instances of terrorism; human trafficking and sex trafficking; high risk of kidnapping and violent crime, particularly near the east coast of Sabah, with land- and water-based curfews; petty crime widespread; fraud and scams of all kinds common; homosexuality illegal and selectively punished, including violent vigilantism
Pros
Stable government committed to reform
Determination to reduce corruption
Young labor force
Vibrant energy sector
Strong relations with China
Adjacent alternative to a vibrant but costly Singapore
Cons
Impacts of global trade upheaval
Resistance of special interests to reform
Undeveloped infrastructure
History of fractious relations with global economic powers, especially the US

Sources: CIA World Factbook, International Monetary Fund, Malaysia Government Department of Statistics, Malaysian National News Agency, Reuters, Trading Economics, Transparency International, US State Department, World Bank, World Population Review

Located at the center of Southeast Asia, with 35.9 million citizens and forecast average growth of 5% in 2025, Malaysia is expanding its profile as an investment hub. According to the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (MIDI), the multi-state federal monarchy recorded RM378.5 billion (about US$88.2 billion) in approved investments last year, the highest in the nation’s history, and marked 14.9% year-on-year growth in investment. Those numbers reflect in part the increasingly tense relations between mainland China, the regional behemoth, and the US, but also Malaysia’s common-law heritage, educated, English-speaking workforce, and significantly lower costs compared with its smaller neighbor, Singapore. “Malaysia is rich in natural resources and boasts sophisticated infrastructure and advanced digital networks,” notes Dato’ Anusha Santhirasthipam, founder of Akshiya Global Ventures. “Unlike [Singapore], “we have prime land available for development. We also boast a vibrant and dynamic corporate sector and a highly skilled and technologically excellent pool of human resources.”

Tech giants including Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) have established a significant presence in peninsular Malaysia, leveraging a skilled workforce and its strategic location. BMW and Toyota, too, have expanded production facilities, recognizing Malaysia’s growing consumer market and direct access to the 10-nation, 660 million-strong ASEAN market.

Along with a stable government and a track record of business-friendly policies, Malaysia also has built an attractive assortment of tax incentives and benefits for family offices, foreign investors, and expatriates, Santhirasthipam says.

Robust Growth Expectations

Despite the Washington-triggered global trade upheaval, officials are holding to a strong outlook for this year.

Speaking recently in Kuala Lumpur, Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour, governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, reaffirmed the bank’s 2025 growth forecast of 4.5% to 5.5%.

“Despite mounting risks from a potential global trade war, escalating geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism,” he said, “sustained domestic demand— driven by robust investment activity from multi-year projects—will be the key growth driver while a strong labor market and income-boosting policies continue to support household spending.”

While heightened global uncertainties—particularly the resurgence of protectionist policies—could pose risks to the broader economic outlook, some 6,700 projects across key sectors will create more than 207,000 new jobs this year, Ghaffour forecast, “reinforcing Malaysia’s position as a premier investment destination.”

Foreign investor confidence in Malaysia remains strong. As of last month, domestic investment accounts for 55% of total investment (RM208.1 billion) and foreign investment the remaining 45% (RM170.4 billion).

Five key partners lead the way: the US (RM32.8 billion), Germany (RM32.2 billion), China (RM28.2 billion), Singapore (RM27.3 billion), and Hong Kong (RM7.4 billion).

Climate For Digital Startups

JH Growth Partners, a marketing and sales consultant, has established a strong presence in the region, with business operations in both Singapore and Malaysia.

“Our business in Malaysia is centered on digital products, specifically in programmatic advertising, alongside a suite of broader digital marketing services,” says Daniël Heerkens, managing partner. “We recognized a gap in the market— we went for it.”

Several factors make Malaysia an attractive proposition, Heerkins argues: first, its proximity to Singapore. “You can be in Kuala Lumpur from Singapore with a mere 45-minute flight or a comfortable five-hour drive. This facilitates easy management and movement of personnel.”

Second, costs are significantly lower in Malaysia: typically, around 50% less than in Singapore. This provides a substantial advantage when establishing operations or scaling a business.

Third, English is widely spoken, making communication and business transactions relatively seamless. The cultural similarities with Singapore also contribute to a smoother transition for expatriates and businesses.

“Finally,” he notes, “we found that Malaysian clients were increasingly seeking service providers with international experience beyond Malaysia. With our blend of European and Asia-Pacific expertise, we are well-positioned to offer both competitive pricing and in-depth knowledge.”

An additional boost came from the Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation (MDEC), the government agency that encourages and promotes the nation’s tech sector.

“MDEC proved invaluable, assisting us with the online application process,” Heerkens says. “We successfully secured tax-free status for five years, which was a significant boost. Furthermore, MDEC facilitated easy visa approvals for our company’s specialists and we were able to establish a 100% foreign-owned company with a relatively low paid-up capital requirement of only US$50,000.”

Heerkens cautions that while his firm’s overall experience has been positive, Malaysia has a conservative business culture and decisions often take longer than foreigners may be accustomed to: “Business development, in particular, requires a greater emphasis on building strong relationships—guanxi—and this more deliberate approach is something to be aware of and to factor into your planning.”

Heerkens advises companies considering investment in Malaysia to adopt a longer-term—three to five years—perspective, plotting it as a second-or third-stage expansion in Asia after setting up a regional headquarters in a more established hub like Singapore.

“While your investment will go further in Malaysia compared to Singapore,” he cautions, “it’s essential to recognize that it requires a greater on-the-ground presence.”

Lasting Strengths

That said, Akshiya’s Santhirasthipam expects the economy to keep on its current growth trajectory.

“Malaysia will remain strong in services, manufacturing, and digital economy for the next 20 years or longer,” she predicts, underscoring the high level of foreign direct investment in the Johor- Singapore Special Economic Zone as well as the island of Penang and Sarawak in northern Borneo. Enterprises that have recently attracted attention in these regions are a longish list: medical tourism, eco-tourism, speciality hotels and hospitality, lifestyle commercial centers, digital economy and data centers, premium assisted living and retirement residential developments, life sciences and biotechnology, green economy and energy transition, agro-processing industries, and innovative farm-to-table solutions.

“Any investment in manufacturing projects should be close to the best infrastructure locations of Penang, Johor, and Selangor,” Santhirasthipam advises.

As a small and open economy, officials are equally confident in the country’s near future, despite the roiling global trade picture.

“Malaysia is not insulated from these global developments,” says Ghaffour. “Nevertheless, our diversified economic structure and policies accord us the resilience and agility to navigate headwinds. Overall, we are confident that the economy will remain on a steady growth path.”

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Romania: New President Promises Moderate Course https://gfmag.com/emerging-frontier-markets/romania-new-president-promises-moderate-course/ Wed, 04 Jun 2025 14:02:36 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70918 A collective sigh of relief rippled through EU capitals on May 18 when former Bucharest Mayor Nicuşor Dan secured an unexpectedly strong mandate in round two
of Romania’s presidential elections, besting far-right opponent George Simion with 53.6% of the vote against 46.4%.

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Dan, a 55-year-old mathematician with a sober, low-key demeanor and a reputation for competence, had underper- formed in round one; but his commitment to the EU, NATO, and supporting Ukraine convinced doubters. Voters were also put off by Simion’s pro-Russian views—Romania has a history of antagonism with Russia—and his endorsement by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who argues that Transylvania, incorporated into Romania by the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, should revert to Budapest.

Dan will have little time to relish his victory. Strong support for the nationalist right will remain a concern as the new government tackles major economic problems including the EU’s highest bud- get deficit at around 9% of GDP and falling living standards.

Political instability in recent months has damaged Romania’s profile in international capital markets—Fitch Ratings assigns it a BBB- with a negative outlook—and fiscal reform will be tougher given Dan’s commitment to eventually raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP.

In his inauguration speech on May 26, Dan spoke of the need for change, arguing that the state was spending too much, and that inequalities within Romania—Southeast Europe’s largest economy with some 19 million people—needed to be tackled and institutions reformed. The new president said he wants to look to the future rather than the past and restore faith in democracy.

“It is in the national interest to send a message of stability to financial markets,” he emphasized. “It is in the national interest to send a signal of openness and predictability to the investment environment.”

Dan’s first priority will be to assemble a government out of Romania’s deeply fractured political scene. “The most likely outcome is a moderate coalition … with the potential addition of the Save Romania Union,” says Orsolya Ráczová, associate fellow for the Center for Global Europe at GLOBSEC. “This would provide fresh impetus to implement reforms agreed with the EU.”

Meanwhile, conservative historian and populist candidate Karol Nawrocki beat centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski in the second round of Poland’s presidential election by approximately 370,000 votes, or 1.78%, on June 1. His victory led Prime Minister Donald Tusk to call for a June 11 vote of confidence for his coalition government the next day. Nawrocki, a strong critic of Tusk and his policies, will likely not impact the government’s foreign and EU policy much. Still, it will make it far more difficult for the Prime Minister to implement his domestic agenda.

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Morocco: Boom In Data Centers https://gfmag.com/emerging-frontier-markets/morocco-boom-in-data-centers/ Tue, 03 Jun 2025 13:03:37 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70895 The North African kingdom has adapted quickly to the digital age. In 2020, the Agency for Digital Development published a roadmap listing digital infrastructure as a priority. Since then, incentives have been put in place for the sector, including tax cuts and exemptions in the National Charter of Investment. The desire for data sovereignty has Read more...

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The North African kingdom has adapted quickly to the digital age. In 2020, the Agency for Digital Development published a roadmap listing digital infrastructure as a priority. Since then, incentives have been put in place for the sector, including tax cuts and exemptions in the National Charter of Investment. The desire for data sovereignty has also contributed to the boom in data centers. A 2021 law ordered all sensitive data to be hosted within Morocco’s borders, which led to data repatriation.

Currently, most data centers are owned by telecom companies like Maroc Telecom and Inwi or by data center operators like Medasys and N+One. Most large banks also have one, while smaller banks lease data storage space.

Regional governments compete by offering different incentives. Casablanca-Settat and Rabat-Salé-Kénitra boast the most data centers. The full internet penetration rates of these urban centers and energy availability are key for these sites. Other regions are catching up, too. Last year, American firm Iozera signed a $500 million deal to build a data center in Tetouan.

“Datacenter location decisions are driven by a complex interplay of factors, including proximity to business hubs, regional infrastructure capabilities, and long-term operational sustainability. The industry naturally gravitates toward areas that optimize these variables,” says Doha Ammour, vice president of International Business Development at N+ONE Datacenters.

The digital wave in Morocco doesn’t stop at data centers. Developments in fintech, AI, and even e-government initiatives, like Digital Morocco 2030, were recently showcased at April’s 2025 Gitex Africa tech expo in Marrakech. The event drew over 1,400 exhibitors and received over 45,000 visitors and delegates from over 130 countries.

The saying goes, “Data is the new oil.” Data must also be refined and properly stored. However, unlike oil, data is infinite and even self-replicating, so the demand for data services will continue to increase.

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Latin America: Leading World Financial Innovation https://gfmag.com/technology/latin-america-leading-world-financial-innovation/ Tue, 03 Jun 2025 12:57:19 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70892 By concentrating on financial inclusion, Latin America shows other parts of the world how to navigate testing times.

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The IMF estimates that Central America will grow by 3.9% this year, the Caribbean is predicted to see a tourism bounce, and the region is setting global standards, according to Boston Consulting Group’s managing director, Saurabh Tripathi.

“Like many emerging markets, Latin America is a hotbed of financial innovation,” said Tripathi to Costa Rican newspaper La República. “In fact, some of the most cutting-edge developments in global banking originate [in Latin America]. These aren’t just regional success stories, but global benchmarks. Latin America is leading by example, and the world is paying attention.”

Tripathi cited two examples: Nubank, which started in Brazil and has spread to Colombia and Mexico. Nubank passed 100 million customers in May 2024 and has a market capitalization of $56.6 billion. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Pix payment platform has transformed the nation’s instant payments system with more than 155 million users, 15 million companies, and over 6 billion transactions monthly. In 2024, Pix had a 53% year-on-year growth and surpassed credit card transactions.

However, Tripathi warned that more than 50% of the total capital invested in the world banking sector is trading below its value. This suggests that banks are not generating enough returns to cover capital costs, which in turn means they cannot enact societal transformation.

“We are on the verge of a banking revolution that will redefine how banks operate, how they serve society, and how they build trust,” he added.

In March, Brazilian bank Itaú unveiled instant global payments, and the latest unicorn in the region is Mexican digital bank Plata, which raised $160 million in Series A funding led by New York-based Kora that valued the two-year-old company at $1.5 billion.

Bolivia, Chile, and Ecuador have fielded projects ranging from financial inclusion to client experience, which won awards during the Fintech Americas Miami conference in March.

Other regional entities that received multiple awards include Grupo AutoFácil, BAC, Banco Atlántida, BBVA, BCP, Citi, Davivienda, and Santander.

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Kenya: Capital Requirement Rule to Trigger Bank Mergers https://gfmag.com/emerging-frontier-markets/kenya-capital-requirement-rule-to-trigger-bank-mergers/ Tue, 03 Jun 2025 12:47:29 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70888 The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) plans to lift its 10-year ban on issuing new banking licenses on July 1.

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This change will open the market to fintechs and digital banks, which is expected to increase market competition and, possibly, bank consolidations as small banks are forced to merge or exit the industry.

“Fintechs will drive innovation in the sector, prompting traditional banks to adopt new technologies to stay competitive,” says Anne Kibisu, a banking analyst at Deloitte Kenya.

New and existing banks will face new capital requirements enacted in December 2024 under the Business Laws (Amendment) Act 2024. By 2026, banks will be required to maintain KES10 billion ($77 million) in capital.

This development follows a similar capital increase in 2009, when the requirement was raised from KES250 million to KES1 billion. That change prompted mergers, including KCB’s acquisition of National Bank in 2019. Analysts predict a similar wave of consolidation as smaller banks struggle to meet the new capital targets.

The central bank reports that 12 banks face a combined capital shortfall of KES11.8 billion. To comply with the new requirements, these banks needed to raise KES3 billion by December 2024, KES6 billion this year, and eventually KES10 billion by 2026.

“These increased capital thresholds are designed to help banks absorb economic shocks and continue supporting sustainable growth,” said CBK Governor Kamau Thugge.

Since December 2023, 27 of Kenya’s 39 licensed banks have met the new capital requirement. The remaining 12, primarily smaller banks with limited branch networks, now face significant pressure to recapitalize or merge with larger institutions.

“We are actively exploring strategic partnerships to meet the new capital requirements,” said an executive from an affected bank. “Mergers are also being considered.”

The CBK is expected to guide the consolidation process, as it did during the 2015-2016 banking crisis, which saw the collapse of Imperial Bank and Chase Bank. By 2027, Kenya’s banking sector is expected to be more robust and consolidated.

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GIFT City Takes Off With Axis Bank Lease Deal https://gfmag.com/capital-raising-corporate-finance/gift-city-takes-off-with-axis-bank-lease-deal/ Thu, 08 May 2025 11:02:56 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70688 The deal also marks a milestone for Indian aviation finance: the first transaction in which all the stakeholders— lender, borrower, law firm (Dentons), facility agent, and security agent—worked through their entities based in the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City), India’s new international financial services center (IFSC). Indian airlines have typically relied on multinational banks Read more...

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The deal also marks a milestone for Indian aviation finance: the first transaction in which all the stakeholders— lender, borrower, law firm (Dentons), facility agent, and security agent—worked through their entities based in the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City), India’s new international financial services center (IFSC).

Indian airlines have typically relied on multinational banks and foreign lenders for aircraft leases, mainly routed through Dublin, Ireland, due to lack of a strong domestic cross-border financing framework. That is changing.

Air India, through its registered leasing entity in GIFT City, AI Fleet Services, has closed eight lease deals worth $1 billion, including with international lenders for Airbus A350s. The March deal for trainer aircraft was done exclusively with an Indian lender, extending US dollar-denominated long-term tenor. InterGlobe Aviation Financial Services IFSC, the GIFT City arm of IndiGo Airlines, has already financed 20 Airbus A321Neos for $1.8 billion through international lenders and has plans to shortly route another 25 aircraft through the IFSC.

The Indian government is pushing the use of GIFT City as a financial hub for cross-border deals for all sectors, but especially aviation in the form of long-term aircraft leases. GIFT City offers a favorable tax regime for domestic and international financiers and a strong regulatory framework, including a new law that allows faster repossession of defaulted aircraft.

Indian airlines have ordered a total of 1,600 aircraft worth $100 billion, to be delivered over the next 10 years, which Indian banks are keen to finance. The government promises to facilitate domestic and foreign banks structuring and financing leases out of GIFT City and has identified $30 billion in funding for fleet modernization and expansion.

Following the Axis Bank deal, several other Indian banks have signaled their interest in entering the space as well.

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Brazil’s Agricultural Export Bonus https://gfmag.com/emerging-frontier-markets/brazils-agricultural-export-bonus/ Tue, 06 May 2025 12:16:44 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70655 Donald Trump's new global tariff regime could be great for Brazil, it turns out. Here's why.

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China, which Trump hit with new tariffs of 145% last month, has of course imposed its own retaliatory measures. Beijing is aiming its guns at American farmers, who make up an important slice of Trump voters.

Flash back to last year, when China was one of the three largest destinations for US agricultural products. According to the Department of Agriculture, these exports repre- sented close to $25 billion in value in 2024. They are unlikely to reach that number this year.

In March, President Xi Jinping announced extra tariffs of 15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton and a 10% increase on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. When Trump raised the bar, China followed with tariffs of 125% on US soybeans.

Chinese consumers will not starve. Brazilian farmers can easily replace American products with their own soybeans and corn. They also have chicken and eggs. Fortunately for them, Brazilian chicken farms escaped the bird flu outbreak, and Brazilian farmers are ready to ship their birds to Asia.

Japan could be another new outlet. Japan imported 40% of its beef from the US last year, but new American tariffs on auto imports have offended Tokyo. Why not try Brazilian meat? That’s what President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva suggested on a recent trip to Japan. The message is the same in Europe. In December, the EU signed a deal with Mercosur that would eliminate 90% of tariffs between Europe and the South American group of Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil. The agreement awaits ratification by the constituent EU states; Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad visited the EU at the end of March to emphasize the benefits of the deal.

Ironically, the Trump-created new world order could also support increased exports of Brazilian shoes to the US. Americans, deprived of cheap Chinese footwear, could switch to Brazilian models. With its abundant supply of leather, Brazil is the biggest producer of shoes outside of Asia.

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Ghana: Waiting for FDI https://gfmag.com/emerging-frontier-markets/ghana-waiting-for-fdi/ Tue, 06 May 2025 11:26:11 +0000 https://gfmag.com/?p=70645 Ghana is picking up the pieces from its 2022 debt default. Political stability and business- friendly policies help, but foreign investment has not yet recovered.

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Vital Statistics
Location: West Africa
Neighbours: Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Togo
Capital city: Accra
Population (2023): 33.79 million
Official language: English
GDP per capita (2023): $2,260
GDP growth (2024): 5.7%, forecast 4% (2025)
Inflation: 23.8% (December 2024), forecast: 11.9% (2025)
Currency: Cedi
Credit Rating: Caa2, “Positive” outlook (Moody’s,
October 2024); CCC+ (Fitch, October 2024); CCC+
with stable outlook (S&P Global Ratings, October 2024)
Investment promotion agency: Ghana Investment Promotion Centre
Investment Incentives: Repatriation of dividends and profits after tax. Generous immigrant quotas for foreign companies based on amount of paid-up capital, ranging from one automatic immigrant quota for investment between $50,000 and $250,000 to four automatic immi- grant quotas for investment of $700,000 and above.
Seven special economic zones, each offering a unique set of incentives and advantages. Tax exemptions for investments in priority areas.
Corruption Perceptions Index rank (2024): 80 out of 180 countries
Political risk: Occasional civil and opposition party
protests. Political stability is strong, with elections generally smooth. The latest election in December 2024
was peaceful, with the incumbent president calling the opposition candidate to concede defeat.
Security risk: Ghana is free from terrorist attacks, but its northern neighbor, Burkina Faso, faces attacks
from Islamic militants, raising concerns about security threats in northern Ghana. Local chieftaincy disputes; illegal mining of gold, bauxite, and other minerals; and herders/farmers conflicts are also common.
Pros
Political Stability
Pro-business policies
World’s second-largest cocoa producer, expanding gold and oil production
Government plans to boost spending on infrastructure funding by $10 billion
Government plans to establish a Ghana Gold Board
(GOLDBOD) to support foreign exchange inflows and gold reserves
Rising status as an investment hub in West Africa
Cons
Vulnerability to climate change
Corruption perception
Government plans to cut public spending
Vulnerability to commodities price changes

Sources: Trading Economics, Ghana Statistical Service, Ghana Investment Promotion Centre, Ghana’s 2025 Budget Document, Fitch Ratings, International Monetary Fund, Moody’s, S&P Global Ratings, World Bank, WorldData.

Ghana’s foreign direct investment inflows have fluctuated over the past four years, dampened by concerns over macroeconomic stability and the national debt load. As the new administration moves ahead with reforms, however, investor confidence is expected to rise, and FDI inflows along with it.

Ghana’s rising status as an investment hub in West Africa, with a record of political stability and business-friendly rules regime all contribute to its attractiveness to foreign investors. Oil and gas, infrastructure, mining, agriculture and agro-processing – especially of cocoa – and information and communications technology are among the sectors commanding attention, along with financial services and tourism.

Larger economies with companies operating in Ghana include China, the US, Germany, Japan, Italy, and Ireland; the bigger names include Procter & Gamble, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Sinotruk. In the telecom sector, foreign operators include South Africa’s MTN, Vodafone, Huawei Technologies, and AirtelTigo.

Ghana’s oil industry, a relatively new sector, is also experiencing an inflow of foreign operators looking to boost pro- duction, including Tullow Oil, Kosmos Energy, and Italy’s ENI, while incom- ing mining operators include Newmont Ghana Gold Ltd, Gold Fields Ghana Ltd, and Anglogold Ashanti Ghana Ltd.

But while interest has been growing over time, the annual volume of FDI flowing into Ghana has oscillated because of macroeconomic instability, which led to a debt crisis in 2022. According to Macrotrends, a research platform for investors, in 2021, FDI inflows into Ghana rose by 35%, to $2.5 billion from the previous year. In 2023, however, inflows dropped to $1.3 billion, a 7.6% decline from 2022.

Stabilization Takes Hold

A new era may have begun in May 2023, however, when Ghana reached a loan support agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Last December, a presidential election was held, further strengthening stabilization.

“Over the coming five years, the capital and financial account is expected to gradually improve,” the IMF noted in a December 2024 report, “with FDI fore- cast to increase to 3% of GDP by 2028 following the completion of the debt restructuring and gradual reform imple- mentation.” Fund officials were in Accra last month to assess Ghana’s economic performance and structural adjustments under the stabilization plan.

The government is confident investment flows will grow.

“Commitment to continue to implement the ongoing IMF-supported pro- gram and reforms to forge macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability will restore investor confidence, resulting in further improvement in FDI flows,” Minister of Finance Cassiel Ato Forson said in his 2025 budget speech in March. In its Exemption Act of 2022, Ghana listed priority areas of investment that will enjoy investor tax incentives: manufacturing, minerals and mineral processing, mining investment by indigenous Ghanaians, oil and gas (value addition), real estate (property development and road infrastructure), pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, and tourism.

On the political front, Ghana’s peaceful election in December “means that democracy has come to stay,” says Marcel Okeke, former chief economist at Zenith Bank, Nigeria’s leading lender. Ghanaians elected a former president, John Daramani Mahama, over incumbent Nana Akufo- Addo. The transition from one administration to the next, one political party to another went off without any call for judicial intervention, suggesting that a period of stability may be ahead.

The loan agreement with the IMF has produced some positive effects. Ghana’s external reserves improved to $8.8 billion in 2024, up from around $6 billion the previous year, reflecting modest gains driven largely by increased borrowing from the IMF and a stronger trade surplus. Despite these positive signs, challenges lie ahead. While the uptick in reserves is a plus, Ghana has an external debt of $28.3 billion, including a segment of eurobonds on which payment has had to be rescheduled. More than half of external debt service of $8.7 billion falls due in 2027.

“These humps are cancerous and pose significant risk to the economy, but we shall fix it,” Forson declared. But Ghana also owes the IMF some $2.5 billion, which means nearly 30% of its reserves are tied to IMF debt; with just $8.8 billion in total reserves, the central bank could run out in about three and a half months.

“The reserves are too low to offer tangible protection to investors in the event of external shocks,” says Emeka Ucheaga, head of Research and Business Intelligence at Credit Direct, a Lagos- based finance company.

While the economy showed signs of recovery with stronger GDP growth in the second and third quarters of last year, macroeconomic fundamentals remain fragile, Ucheaga warns; inflation continues to run high, undermining purchasing power and investor returns. From 23.8% in December, the rate only declined to 23.1% in February, according to official figures.

The Ghanaian cedi, which briefly rallied toward the end of 2024, has since reversed, declining 5.3% in the first quarter.

A Glass Half Full

“These indicators, taken together, highlight a country still in the early stages of stabilization rather than in a phase of renewed investor confidence,” Ucheaga argues. Fluctuations in FDI reflect this uncertainty. Despite improved trade figures and IMF support, he says, investor sentiment is still weighed down by memories of Ghana’s December 2022 debt default and an increasingly uncertain global economic environment marked by rising protectionism and the looming threat of a global trade war.

“For Ghana to reverse this trend, it must demonstrate a sustained commit- ment to economic stability,” Ucheaga says. “That means consistently growing the real economy, maintaining a trade surplus, and steadily accumulating foreign reserves from credible, non-debt-driven sources.” Inflation must be brought under control and the exchange rate stabilized to protect investor value; he adds. The government has set goals of an end-of-year inflation target of 11.9%, an overall real- GDP growth rate of at least 4%, and non-oil GDP growth of 4.8%.

“Until these improvements are both visible and durable, investors are likely to remain cautious about reentering the Ghanaian market,” he warns.

Despite these impediments, Okeke is bullish on Ghana’s FDI growth.

“There are also reports of terror- ism in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and other countries in the region, but we do not hear about that in Ghana,” he says. “Investors look for a place to put their money and go to sleep. That is why investors will want to put their money into Ghana.”

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